A Geology and Geodesy Based Model of Dynamic Earthquake Rupture on the Rodgers Creek?Hayward?Calaveras Fault System, California

The Hayward fault in California's San Francisco Bay area produces large earthquakes, with the last occurring 1868. We examine how physics-based dynamic rupture modeling can be used to numerically simulate earthquakes on not only fault, but also its connected companions north and south, Rodgers Creek Calaveras faults. Equipped a wealth of images this system, including those 3D geology geometry, addition inferences about interseismic creep-rate pattern rock-friction behavior, we use finite-element computer code perform earthquake simulations. find that rock properties affect locations amount slip produced our simulated earthquakes. Crucial factors control behavior are nucleation locations, data reveal where system is creeping or locked. Our findings suggest Creek-Hayward-Calaveras-Northern (RC-H-C-NC) fault-system may result from starts locked part then stopped by parts, leading high-magnitude-6 earthquakes; or, cascades through some magnitude-7